BEGIN:VCALENDAR
VERSION:2.0
PRODID:-//Institute of Tourism - ECPv6.15.18//NONSGML v1.0//EN
CALSCALE:GREGORIAN
METHOD:PUBLISH
X-WR-CALNAME:Institute of Tourism
X-ORIGINAL-URL:https://institutetourism.com
X-WR-CALDESC:Events for Institute of Tourism
REFRESH-INTERVAL;VALUE=DURATION:PT1H
X-Robots-Tag:noindex
X-PUBLISHED-TTL:PT1H
BEGIN:VTIMEZONE
TZID:Asia/Bangkok
BEGIN:STANDARD
TZOFFSETFROM:+0700
TZOFFSETTO:+0700
TZNAME:+07
DTSTART:20250101T000000
END:STANDARD
END:VTIMEZONE
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Asia/Bangkok:20260501T080000
DTEND;TZID=Asia/Bangkok:20260501T170000
DTSTAMP:20260405T131539
CREATED:20260322T115707Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260322T115801Z
UID:47743-1777622400-1777654800@institutetourism.com
SUMMARY:Travel as a Tool for Mental Wellbeing. 7 April
DESCRIPTION:What Happened to Travel & Tourism with Start of War in the Middle East 								\n				\n					\n		\n					\n		\n				\n						\n					\n			\n						\n				\n							\n							\n					\n				\n			\n			\n									\n						\n							Prof. Francesco Frangialli						\n					\n				\n									\n						Honorary Secretary General of United Nation Tourism (UN Tourism) \n					\n				\n							\n		\n						\n				\n					\n		\n					\n		\n				\n						\n					\n			\n						\n				\n									Interview Institute of Tourism with Prof. Frangialli Could you please remind us how everything began ? As everyone knows\, the joint attack by the United States and Israel on Iran which triggered the current conflict began on February 28\, more than one month ago. It is the starting point of the ongoing war\, and led to immediate retaliation by Iran. Of course\, even after one month of fighting\, it is too soon to evaluate the consequence of the shock. No one knows when the conflict will end and if additional damages on the infrastructures will be registered. What was the direct impact on tourism ?  In the countries affected\, the tourism activity stopped immediately. The immediate preoccupation from local governments\, airlines and tour operators was the repatriation of the dozens of thousands of visitors blocked in their places of vacation or work\, especially in Dubai. For those who were about to leave\, travel agents had to propose alternative destinations in other parts of the world. Except an hotel on the Palm Jumeirah in Dubai hit by a missile\, no other tourism infrastructure has been affected up to now. But five airports of the Gulf and the one of Teheran have registered damages at different degrees. The one of Kuwait has been severely hit. Any remarks on the nature of this crisis ? It is interesting to note that this crisis entirely differs from the one of the Covid : six years ago\, all activity stopped in a few weeks’ time\, almost worldwide. With the bombing of Iran\, the crisis is so far only regional\, and it is predictable that the tourism industry as a whole will be only barely affected. We may also  observe that the impact of the terrible shock was felt far beyond the war zone. The airspace of all the region was forbidden to all flights. Airlines had to invent other routes to avoid the region. Moreover\, air connections became impossible in Dubai\, Doha and Abu Dhabi. Asian tourists were blocked in Europe. European tourists were stuck in Asia. Are\, from your point of view all the Middle East countries affected on an equal foot-step ? Of course not. I cannot review the situation of each of them one by one ; but\, in the turmoil of this new war affecting a dozen of countries\, I would like have a special thought for one of them dear to my heart\, Lebanon\, which has been drawn into a conflict by the Hezbollah without being at all responsible of anything. Lebanon\, a land of ancient culture\, has a remarkable tourism potential ; but the number of its visitors\, because of various difficulties and obstacles\, had already been declining over the past two years. I am however persuaded that the brave Lebanese people will one more time overcome the new challenge their country is facing. Could you remind us what was the situation for tourism in the region when the military events began ?  Before the bombing of Iran started\, this part of the world was already suffering from war between Israel and the Hamas since the horrific events of October 7\, 2023 and the tragedy which followed. Even if the fighting has stopped last October\, the result of 2025 is impacted by what has happened in the Gaza strip. However\, the region’s tourism has been doing well last year\, arrivals to the region were close to 100 million\, exceeding the peak of 2019 by 39 per cent. This figure does not comprise the 4 to 5 million international visitors received by Israel every year\, which in UNWTO statistics are included among those of Europe. In the same manner\, the total of 100 million does not include the 6 to 7 million foreign people visiting Iran\, which\, in UNWTO statistics\, are incorporated wihin those of South Asia. It has to be noted that\, surprisingly\, Middle East is the part of the world where tourism rebounded the quickest after the end of the Covid pandemic. What is this due to? Mainly to the fact that the major destinations have not been directly impacted by what was happening in Gaza. Egypt\, once engaged in three wars with Israel and a frequent victim of terrorism\, now does not operate any longer under a logic of peace or war\, but under one resulting from its exceptional cultural heritage. Pilgrimages continue unabated to Saudi Arabia\, which\, like Egypt but for a different reason\, benefits from a captive market. Egypt received 15 million international visitor in 2025\, Saudi Arabia\, because of the Hadj\, 27 million. At the eve of this new war\, economic activity remained high in the Gulf. Far from the epicenter of the earthquake\, Dubai has continued until February 28  to magnetize visitors and remains a favored destination. From your point of view\, can tourism play a role in promoting peace and understanding in this part of the world ? The answer is yes\, but only when circumstances are favorable. In the year 2000\, I lead a group of high level tourism personalities from both public and private sectors to Amman\, where we met His Majesty King Abdullah\, Jericho\, where in the casino Israeli gamblers were losing all their money to the Palestinian Authority which was running the establishment\, Jerusalem\, the holly city of the three religions\, Tel Aviv and Sharm El-Cheikh\, were many peace discussions had taken place. From the balcony of our hotel\, the minister of tourism from Jordan showed me the house that his family and himself were forced to leave in 1948 – the disaster that the Arabs call Nakba. In the Holy Land\, memories from the past are always very close. During this trip\, the Israeli minister was chatting friendly with his Arab colleagues. I had the honor to be decorated of the Palestinian national order by Yasser Arafat. On this very special year of the anniversary of the birth of Christ\, lasting peace seemed to be around the corner. Unfortunately\, it has not been the case. A few months later started the second intifada. Is the impact of this new war limited to what you just described ?  Not at all\, of course. The major element is obviously about energy infrastructures and energy prices. Following the estimates of the International Energy Agency\, forty energy plants are seriously or very seriously damaged in nine countries of the region. The production of oil has been reduced by 10 million barrels per day\, twice what happened with the war in Ukraine in 2022. The market is characterized by a sharp increase in the prices and an extreme volatility. Oil prices have surged above 100 hundred dollars per barrel\, reaching 110 to 120 during escalations. Prices fluctuate heavily depending on military and diplomatic developments. And\, let me add\, depending on Trump wavering and fantasist announcements ! The blockade of the strait of Hormuz reduces sharply the capacity of export from the major producers. At the difference of a region like Europe\, tourism in the Middle East is fundamentally dependent on air transport. What are the perspectives for both tourism and air transport ? A sharp decline in visitors to the region is expected – may be 25 per cent. Regional and global tourism will be losing six hundred million dollars per day. Hotels\, restaurants and souks habitually crowded of visitors are almost empty. Luxury and business tourism are particularly suffering. Major sport events have been postponed. Thousands of passengers have been stuck in Gulf ports especially Dubai and Doha. Cruise lines are halting departures and even cancelling sailings.   A collapse in traveler confidence is noted\, accentuated by the negative travel warnings published by governments all over the world. This is a major source of concern for the long term since the damage is likely to be lasting even when the war is over. The image of the destination is deteriorated for long. But the consequences are of course not limited to the Middle East.  Concerning the global impact\, a redistribution of tourism flows is expected for the next summer holidays. As it happened before with the Arab Spring\, safer Mediterranean countries like Spain\, Italy\, Morocco or Turkey may gain tourists which had planned to travel to the Middle East. The Caribbean may also benefit from some carryover effect. The situation is hard for Cyprus (4\,5 million visitors in 2025)\, which appears to be within the range of the Iranian missiles. It is complicated for Greece (40 million visitors) also seen too close to the epicenter of the conflict. In Europe and North America\, the high price of gas will favor domestic tourism and outdoor activities close to home\, and reduce the number of long-haul trips by air. Some experts predict an overall contraction of global tourism spending. As mentioned before\, I do not share this point of view. Compensation mechanisms between regions and destinations will take place. If there are no further damages and negative developments\, I am persuaded that international tourism will continue to grow in 2026. Maybe a little bit slower since the high price of energy will impact the global economic growth. However\, one possible negative development would be the extension of the conflict to the Red Sea\, a maritime corridor extending from the Suez canal up to the Bab el-Mandeb strait\, as important as the strait of Hormuz. This is very possible since the Houthis have resumed their destructive and stubborn fight against Israel. In such a case\, Egypt\, which for the present time is not concerned\, will become part of the turmoil. In that case the impact on tourism will change of scale. To which extent is air transport affected ? Concerning air transport\, I already mentioned airspace closure and flight disruptions. Airlines are facing longer routes\, higher costs and increase in fuel consumption. Ticket prices increase sharply. The crisis is redistributing global air traffic\, not only reducing it. Dubai\, Doha and to a lesser extent Abu Dhabi are playing a role of hubs between Europe\, Africa\, South Asia and even Eastern Asia. Therefore\, this impact on air transport is not limited to the Gulf and the Middle East. It has to be noted that the major Gulf airlines\, Emirates\, Qatar Airways\,  and Etihad saw massive capacity drops. You mentioned before\, that the impact of this war on global tourism should be rather limited. So\, you are rather optimistic ? Things would be of course different if a strong inflation was to result from a lasting and strong increase in the price of energy that the central banks would be unable to jugulate. Let me conclude with a personal note on this point – a positive message. In such difficult circumstances\, the regional tourism should be able to benefit from a valuable assistance from the United Nations World Tourism Organization. The UNWTO is now headed by Shaikha Al Nowais\, from the United Arab Emirates. She has a personal experience of the tourism industry in this part of the world\, and should be in a position to lead efficiently the response of the international tourism community to this event.  You did not mention the impact in Iran tourism itself. I did not because paradoxically it is not significant. Iran received last year 7 million foreign visitors\, among them many pilgrims. It is peanuts for a large country with such a high cultural and natural potential\, as rich but more diversified than the one of Egypt. Iran is with China and Uzbekistan one of the three emblematic countries of the ancient Silk Road. I went to this superb and fascinating country a lot of times and met two of its presidents : Mohammad Khatami – a wise man – and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad – a strange person whose ambition was to expel the Jews from Israel and make them reincludedsettle in Alaska. I have visited Teheran\, Isfahan\, Shiraz\, Persepolis and other remarkable places. I have come back with the conviction that there will never be any substantial tourism in Iran under the current regime. You mentioned the impressive figure of 100 million arrivals in the Middle East in 2025. The symbol of this outstanding success is of course the emirate of Dubai. Do we learn anything about this exceptional destination on the occasion of this crisis ? Some figures are sufficient to give an idea of how big Dubai is in term of tourism : 827 hotels\, 154 000 rooms\, 20 million visitors\, one fifth of the region. In a book I wrote a few years ago\, I questioned the fragility of what I called the “model Dubai”\, a country where 93 per cent of what is consumed is imported and eighty per cent of the population is from foreign origin. Its very powerful service and financial sector is particularly vulnerable to panic movements. Of course\, I could not think of a war affecting such a calm and peaceful destination. I had rather in mind three possible risks : a brutal epidemic outburst\, a social unrest among the workers of the huge and exploited South Asian community\, or some major terrorism act. I was especially envisaging that the target of such an attack would be the airport\, the second in the world after Atlanta\, with some 87 million passengers. An strike again a desalination plant is another possibility. This demonstration is both implacable and depressing.  Let me now ask you a last question : can this war in Iran be compared to the crisis of various origins which have taken place since the end of the second World War ? With much difficulty. You cannot relate the current conflict to any other military event of the past. For a basic reason : the size of the global tourism market has changed dramatically. There were 25 million international tourists by the time of the Korean war ; 30 at the moment of the Suez crisis ; 200 by the time of the Vietnam war ; there are 1.5 billion today. The two major crises that global tourism has experimented since the beginning of the Millennium – the subprime crisis and the COVID – are of a too different nature to be compared with the war in Iran. However\, an important lesson can be drawn from the past. History\, since the advent of tourism statistics\, shows us that after every major crisis international tourism experienced a rebound\, as sharp as the dip that came before. It took three years with the Covid\, but it happened. Every time\, tourism returned to its growth trajectory\, which is\, and will be again\, its long-term trend. This will happen one more time with this terrible war for the innocent civilian populations on both sides. ******* Let me add a final world. The Middle East is passing through a very hard crisis. It is impossible not to be afraid when we consider all the destructions and the sufferings. But in the mid and long terms\, our appreciation may change\, and the reality as well. The Chinese have a word to call a crisis. This word\, weiji\, is composed of two ideograms\, the first one meaning disaster\, the second one meaning opportunity. It is very possible that a fresh and more favorable picture results from this awful war. A new regime\, more open\, more democratic and more concerned with the rights of its citizens\, may take over in Iran. The governments of the Gulf may have become more conscious of the weaknesses and of the fragility of the “model Dubai”. The region may start moving towards a more sustainable and opened pattern of development. The countries of the region may start a process to become less dependent from the external influences. “I had a dream”\, said Martin Luther King. 								\n				\n					\n		\n					\n		\n				\n						\n					\n			\n						\n				\n							\n							\n					\n				\n			\n			\n									\n						\n							Prof. Francesco Frangialli						\n					\n				\n									\n						Honorary Secretary General of the United Nation Tourism (UN Tourism) and the former Director General  Tourism of France. \n					\n				\n							\n		\n						\n				\n					\n		\n					\n		\n				\n						\n					\n			\n						\n				\n							\n				\n					Other Articles \n				\n				\n						\n				\n				\n				\n							\n				\n				\n			\n		\n				\n				\n			\n				What Happened to Travel and Tourism with Start of War in the Middle East			\n		\n				\n				\n				\n				\n			\n		\n				\n				\n			\n				Seven Major Challenges Facing Tourism Today\, by Francesco Frangialli			\n		\n				\n				\n				\n				\n			\n		\n				\n				\n			\n				Tourism Facing a New War\, Francesco Frangialli
URL:https://institutetourism.com/event/travel-as-a-tool-for-mental-wellbeing-7-april/
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Asia/Bangkok:20260502T080000
DTEND;TZID=Asia/Bangkok:20260502T170000
DTSTAMP:20260405T131539
CREATED:20260316T090640Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260316T091618Z
UID:47457-1777708800-1777741200@institutetourism.com
SUMMARY:Tourism Investment & Business Forum Bangkok\, 20 March
DESCRIPTION:What Happened to Travel & Tourism with Start of War in the Middle East 								\n				\n					\n		\n					\n		\n				\n						\n					\n			\n						\n				\n							\n							\n					\n				\n			\n			\n									\n						\n							Prof. Francesco Frangialli						\n					\n				\n									\n						Honorary Secretary General of United Nation Tourism (UN Tourism) \n					\n				\n							\n		\n						\n				\n					\n		\n					\n		\n				\n						\n					\n			\n						\n				\n									Interview Institute of Tourism with Prof. Frangialli Could you please remind us how everything began ? As everyone knows\, the joint attack by the United States and Israel on Iran which triggered the current conflict began on February 28\, more than one month ago. It is the starting point of the ongoing war\, and led to immediate retaliation by Iran. Of course\, even after one month of fighting\, it is too soon to evaluate the consequence of the shock. No one knows when the conflict will end and if additional damages on the infrastructures will be registered. What was the direct impact on tourism ?  In the countries affected\, the tourism activity stopped immediately. The immediate preoccupation from local governments\, airlines and tour operators was the repatriation of the dozens of thousands of visitors blocked in their places of vacation or work\, especially in Dubai. For those who were about to leave\, travel agents had to propose alternative destinations in other parts of the world. Except an hotel on the Palm Jumeirah in Dubai hit by a missile\, no other tourism infrastructure has been affected up to now. But five airports of the Gulf and the one of Teheran have registered damages at different degrees. The one of Kuwait has been severely hit. Any remarks on the nature of this crisis ? It is interesting to note that this crisis entirely differs from the one of the Covid : six years ago\, all activity stopped in a few weeks’ time\, almost worldwide. With the bombing of Iran\, the crisis is so far only regional\, and it is predictable that the tourism industry as a whole will be only barely affected. We may also  observe that the impact of the terrible shock was felt far beyond the war zone. The airspace of all the region was forbidden to all flights. Airlines had to invent other routes to avoid the region. Moreover\, air connections became impossible in Dubai\, Doha and Abu Dhabi. Asian tourists were blocked in Europe. European tourists were stuck in Asia. Are\, from your point of view all the Middle East countries affected on an equal foot-step ? Of course not. I cannot review the situation of each of them one by one ; but\, in the turmoil of this new war affecting a dozen of countries\, I would like have a special thought for one of them dear to my heart\, Lebanon\, which has been drawn into a conflict by the Hezbollah without being at all responsible of anything. Lebanon\, a land of ancient culture\, has a remarkable tourism potential ; but the number of its visitors\, because of various difficulties and obstacles\, had already been declining over the past two years. I am however persuaded that the brave Lebanese people will one more time overcome the new challenge their country is facing. Could you remind us what was the situation for tourism in the region when the military events began ?  Before the bombing of Iran started\, this part of the world was already suffering from war between Israel and the Hamas since the horrific events of October 7\, 2023 and the tragedy which followed. Even if the fighting has stopped last October\, the result of 2025 is impacted by what has happened in the Gaza strip. However\, the region’s tourism has been doing well last year\, arrivals to the region were close to 100 million\, exceeding the peak of 2019 by 39 per cent. This figure does not comprise the 4 to 5 million international visitors received by Israel every year\, which in UNWTO statistics are included among those of Europe. In the same manner\, the total of 100 million does not include the 6 to 7 million foreign people visiting Iran\, which\, in UNWTO statistics\, are incorporated wihin those of South Asia. It has to be noted that\, surprisingly\, Middle East is the part of the world where tourism rebounded the quickest after the end of the Covid pandemic. What is this due to? Mainly to the fact that the major destinations have not been directly impacted by what was happening in Gaza. Egypt\, once engaged in three wars with Israel and a frequent victim of terrorism\, now does not operate any longer under a logic of peace or war\, but under one resulting from its exceptional cultural heritage. Pilgrimages continue unabated to Saudi Arabia\, which\, like Egypt but for a different reason\, benefits from a captive market. Egypt received 15 million international visitor in 2025\, Saudi Arabia\, because of the Hadj\, 27 million. At the eve of this new war\, economic activity remained high in the Gulf. Far from the epicenter of the earthquake\, Dubai has continued until February 28  to magnetize visitors and remains a favored destination. From your point of view\, can tourism play a role in promoting peace and understanding in this part of the world ? The answer is yes\, but only when circumstances are favorable. In the year 2000\, I lead a group of high level tourism personalities from both public and private sectors to Amman\, where we met His Majesty King Abdullah\, Jericho\, where in the casino Israeli gamblers were losing all their money to the Palestinian Authority which was running the establishment\, Jerusalem\, the holly city of the three religions\, Tel Aviv and Sharm El-Cheikh\, were many peace discussions had taken place. From the balcony of our hotel\, the minister of tourism from Jordan showed me the house that his family and himself were forced to leave in 1948 – the disaster that the Arabs call Nakba. In the Holy Land\, memories from the past are always very close. During this trip\, the Israeli minister was chatting friendly with his Arab colleagues. I had the honor to be decorated of the Palestinian national order by Yasser Arafat. On this very special year of the anniversary of the birth of Christ\, lasting peace seemed to be around the corner. Unfortunately\, it has not been the case. A few months later started the second intifada. Is the impact of this new war limited to what you just described ?  Not at all\, of course. The major element is obviously about energy infrastructures and energy prices. Following the estimates of the International Energy Agency\, forty energy plants are seriously or very seriously damaged in nine countries of the region. The production of oil has been reduced by 10 million barrels per day\, twice what happened with the war in Ukraine in 2022. The market is characterized by a sharp increase in the prices and an extreme volatility. Oil prices have surged above 100 hundred dollars per barrel\, reaching 110 to 120 during escalations. Prices fluctuate heavily depending on military and diplomatic developments. And\, let me add\, depending on Trump wavering and fantasist announcements ! The blockade of the strait of Hormuz reduces sharply the capacity of export from the major producers. At the difference of a region like Europe\, tourism in the Middle East is fundamentally dependent on air transport. What are the perspectives for both tourism and air transport ? A sharp decline in visitors to the region is expected – may be 25 per cent. Regional and global tourism will be losing six hundred million dollars per day. Hotels\, restaurants and souks habitually crowded of visitors are almost empty. Luxury and business tourism are particularly suffering. Major sport events have been postponed. Thousands of passengers have been stuck in Gulf ports especially Dubai and Doha. Cruise lines are halting departures and even cancelling sailings.   A collapse in traveler confidence is noted\, accentuated by the negative travel warnings published by governments all over the world. This is a major source of concern for the long term since the damage is likely to be lasting even when the war is over. The image of the destination is deteriorated for long. But the consequences are of course not limited to the Middle East.  Concerning the global impact\, a redistribution of tourism flows is expected for the next summer holidays. As it happened before with the Arab Spring\, safer Mediterranean countries like Spain\, Italy\, Morocco or Turkey may gain tourists which had planned to travel to the Middle East. The Caribbean may also benefit from some carryover effect. The situation is hard for Cyprus (4\,5 million visitors in 2025)\, which appears to be within the range of the Iranian missiles. It is complicated for Greece (40 million visitors) also seen too close to the epicenter of the conflict. In Europe and North America\, the high price of gas will favor domestic tourism and outdoor activities close to home\, and reduce the number of long-haul trips by air. Some experts predict an overall contraction of global tourism spending. As mentioned before\, I do not share this point of view. Compensation mechanisms between regions and destinations will take place. If there are no further damages and negative developments\, I am persuaded that international tourism will continue to grow in 2026. Maybe a little bit slower since the high price of energy will impact the global economic growth. However\, one possible negative development would be the extension of the conflict to the Red Sea\, a maritime corridor extending from the Suez canal up to the Bab el-Mandeb strait\, as important as the strait of Hormuz. This is very possible since the Houthis have resumed their destructive and stubborn fight against Israel. In such a case\, Egypt\, which for the present time is not concerned\, will become part of the turmoil. In that case the impact on tourism will change of scale. To which extent is air transport affected ? Concerning air transport\, I already mentioned airspace closure and flight disruptions. Airlines are facing longer routes\, higher costs and increase in fuel consumption. Ticket prices increase sharply. The crisis is redistributing global air traffic\, not only reducing it. Dubai\, Doha and to a lesser extent Abu Dhabi are playing a role of hubs between Europe\, Africa\, South Asia and even Eastern Asia. Therefore\, this impact on air transport is not limited to the Gulf and the Middle East. It has to be noted that the major Gulf airlines\, Emirates\, Qatar Airways\,  and Etihad saw massive capacity drops. You mentioned before\, that the impact of this war on global tourism should be rather limited. So\, you are rather optimistic ? Things would be of course different if a strong inflation was to result from a lasting and strong increase in the price of energy that the central banks would be unable to jugulate. Let me conclude with a personal note on this point – a positive message. In such difficult circumstances\, the regional tourism should be able to benefit from a valuable assistance from the United Nations World Tourism Organization. The UNWTO is now headed by Shaikha Al Nowais\, from the United Arab Emirates. She has a personal experience of the tourism industry in this part of the world\, and should be in a position to lead efficiently the response of the international tourism community to this event.  You did not mention the impact in Iran tourism itself. I did not because paradoxically it is not significant. Iran received last year 7 million foreign visitors\, among them many pilgrims. It is peanuts for a large country with such a high cultural and natural potential\, as rich but more diversified than the one of Egypt. Iran is with China and Uzbekistan one of the three emblematic countries of the ancient Silk Road. I went to this superb and fascinating country a lot of times and met two of its presidents : Mohammad Khatami – a wise man – and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad – a strange person whose ambition was to expel the Jews from Israel and make them reincludedsettle in Alaska. I have visited Teheran\, Isfahan\, Shiraz\, Persepolis and other remarkable places. I have come back with the conviction that there will never be any substantial tourism in Iran under the current regime. You mentioned the impressive figure of 100 million arrivals in the Middle East in 2025. The symbol of this outstanding success is of course the emirate of Dubai. Do we learn anything about this exceptional destination on the occasion of this crisis ? Some figures are sufficient to give an idea of how big Dubai is in term of tourism : 827 hotels\, 154 000 rooms\, 20 million visitors\, one fifth of the region. In a book I wrote a few years ago\, I questioned the fragility of what I called the “model Dubai”\, a country where 93 per cent of what is consumed is imported and eighty per cent of the population is from foreign origin. Its very powerful service and financial sector is particularly vulnerable to panic movements. Of course\, I could not think of a war affecting such a calm and peaceful destination. I had rather in mind three possible risks : a brutal epidemic outburst\, a social unrest among the workers of the huge and exploited South Asian community\, or some major terrorism act. I was especially envisaging that the target of such an attack would be the airport\, the second in the world after Atlanta\, with some 87 million passengers. An strike again a desalination plant is another possibility. This demonstration is both implacable and depressing.  Let me now ask you a last question : can this war in Iran be compared to the crisis of various origins which have taken place since the end of the second World War ? With much difficulty. You cannot relate the current conflict to any other military event of the past. For a basic reason : the size of the global tourism market has changed dramatically. There were 25 million international tourists by the time of the Korean war ; 30 at the moment of the Suez crisis ; 200 by the time of the Vietnam war ; there are 1.5 billion today. The two major crises that global tourism has experimented since the beginning of the Millennium – the subprime crisis and the COVID – are of a too different nature to be compared with the war in Iran. However\, an important lesson can be drawn from the past. History\, since the advent of tourism statistics\, shows us that after every major crisis international tourism experienced a rebound\, as sharp as the dip that came before. It took three years with the Covid\, but it happened. Every time\, tourism returned to its growth trajectory\, which is\, and will be again\, its long-term trend. This will happen one more time with this terrible war for the innocent civilian populations on both sides. ******* Let me add a final world. The Middle East is passing through a very hard crisis. It is impossible not to be afraid when we consider all the destructions and the sufferings. But in the mid and long terms\, our appreciation may change\, and the reality as well. The Chinese have a word to call a crisis. This word\, weiji\, is composed of two ideograms\, the first one meaning disaster\, the second one meaning opportunity. It is very possible that a fresh and more favorable picture results from this awful war. A new regime\, more open\, more democratic and more concerned with the rights of its citizens\, may take over in Iran. The governments of the Gulf may have become more conscious of the weaknesses and of the fragility of the “model Dubai”. The region may start moving towards a more sustainable and opened pattern of development. The countries of the region may start a process to become less dependent from the external influences. “I had a dream”\, said Martin Luther King. 								\n				\n					\n		\n					\n		\n				\n						\n					\n			\n						\n				\n							\n							\n					\n				\n			\n			\n									\n						\n							Prof. Francesco Frangialli						\n					\n				\n									\n						Honorary Secretary General of the United Nation Tourism (UN Tourism) and the former Director General  Tourism of France. \n					\n				\n							\n		\n						\n				\n					\n		\n					\n		\n				\n						\n					\n			\n						\n				\n							\n				\n					Other Articles \n				\n				\n						\n				\n				\n				\n							\n				\n				\n			\n		\n				\n				\n			\n				What Happened to Travel and Tourism with Start of War in the Middle East			\n		\n				\n				\n				\n				\n			\n		\n				\n				\n			\n				Seven Major Challenges Facing Tourism Today\, by Francesco Frangialli			\n		\n				\n				\n				\n				\n			\n		\n				\n				\n			\n				Tourism Facing a New War\, Francesco Frangialli
URL:https://institutetourism.com/event/tourism-investment-business-forum-bangkok-20-march/
END:VEVENT
END:VCALENDAR